Take a screenshot with the excellent job. ^_^

所以今天不得不去CCSF搞summer session registration。

去Int’l student administration找一个叫KIM的人，请她暂时把hold给remove掉。还好是个能讲广东话的人，交流起来就容易多了。她了解我是要在summer之后才申请OPT，就把hold给暂时取消了，还很热心地帮我把那个certificate的petition给交了。（光那个petition，我就跑了两次office，人家不收，说非要等到6月13日才能交，但Int’l consultor告诉我说现在就可以交了。这里的机构，也不是那么有效率的。）

反正这个summer的课程注册好了，就可以为我的OPT时间延长两个月，对找工作是有利的。弄好了就松下一口气。

晚上我和爸爸、妈妈一起出动，做了五个菜出来，让他们吃吃我们“耿家菜”的滋味。妈咪的秘制鸡翅最受好评，爹地的豆瓣煮鱼也很不错，我的番茄炒蛋也就只能帮大家增进食欲做个配角了

We are assigned to write an essay for the final exam of macroeconomics (Econ1) in CCSF. There are several topics in the list and I pick one to write.

Warning: do NOT copy this essay! 

Topic:

Use a Keynesian economic viewpoint to answer this question. Explain why it is helpful for the government to intervene in the economy in recessions. Then state a specific fiscal policy that you would recommend in a recession, give an example of someone who will directly benefit from it, and describe the process of how it will affect real GDP. Then state on weakness, negative side effect, or cost of using this specific fiscal policy.

Answer:

First of all, in Keynesian view, price level and wage are sticky downward in recessions. That means in the certain price level, customer spending is stuck. Besides, business investment and net export are quite unpredictable in recessions. What government can do is to intervene in the economy, which can pull up the GDP.

I would recommend an expansionary monetary policy in a recession, such as buying government securities. Banks will directly benefit from it. As the Fed buys securities from banks, their money asset increase, which means they have more fund can be used to make loans in order to make profits.

The process it affects real GDP:  (seven steps)
Fed buys securities -> banks excess reserve ↑ ->   loans ↑ -> money supply ↑ -> interest rate ↓-> spend multiplier ↑ -> aggregate demand ↑ -> real GDP ↑

However, Keynesian suggests that this policy may be weak in a recession. One of the weaknesses is credit crunch – banks are unwilling to land out their excess reserves.

Warning: do NOT copy!

Insurance-Match SNS

Marketing plan

1. Executive summary

Insurance is a tremendous industry with innumerable unwilling customers. People need to find suitable and affordable insurance to save money. Insurance-Match is here come to help them.

Insurance-Match is a Social Network Service (hereinafter SNS) for one that is looking for suitable and affordable insurance. This kind of combination of insurance and SNS is brand new to world. In addition, there is a conclusive target market that will be discussed later. Hence, Insurance-Match is a promising project.

2. Situational analysis

Because of recent years’ recession, insurance companies, such as insurance titan AIG, suffer tons of loss. Many insurance companies adjust their policy. Many customers feel premium gets higher and higher, but the coverage turns smaller and smaller. People need to find a cost-efficient insurance plan, but the cost of finding is generally too high to do. There is a vacuum between consumer needs and realization. Before step into this field, let’s estimate the capacity of the market. The population of the U.S. is over 300 million. Assumed each individual, regardless age, gender or any other characteristic, pays $ 1,000 to all the insurance premium, there is 300 billion! Now, we have eager consumers and huge market. It’s time to do something.

3. Mission statement

Insurance-Match: reduce financial burden for people and communities.

4. Marketing objectives

5. SWOT analysis

· Strengths

o Excellent expertise in internet field from website construction to customer service.

o First concept in combination of insurance and SNS.

o Light company, easy to adjust. Can implement trial-and-error in order to grow rapidly.

· Weaknesses

o Lack of insurance professionals.

o Lack of business experience in the U.S.

o No enough funds for massive promotion.

· Opportunities

o Everyone needs insurance and many feel premium unworthy.

o The combination of insurance and SNS is Niche market and no entrant yet.

o Bay area is fit for start-up companies.

· Threats

o An incipient internet company is terribly easily being copied.

o Internet security, such as user database and website accessibility, is vulnerable.

o If government enlarges the coverage of Medicare, the market demand will be affected.

6. Competitive advantage

With a niche strategy, Insurance-Match is the forerunner in combination of insurance and SNS.

7. Positioning

Insurance-Match will position itself as a platform across Information Search and Social Networking fields for internet medium user. It may collide with predominant websites such as Google and Facebook, but they are not perfectly hostile, so we can make a way for win-win.

8. Consumer decision making process

· Need Recognition: although insurance premium is not expensive for one year, if sum up for a long period, it will astonish discerning consumers. For instance, if a health insurance plan imposes $100 per month, there is $1,200 per year and $36,000 for 30 years. That can be a down payment of a house in small town. Once consumers realize the cost, they will start this first stage of decision-making process. What Insurance-Match should do is stimulate consumers for knowing they can find another suitable insurance plan to keep the balance between premium and protection. Promotion is the main approach to stimulate consumers.

· Information search: as insurance is a complex system for most noninsurance-practitioners, consumers have to do external information search. The custom search engine is one of the Insurance-Match’s products to attract them. With the information listed by the search engine, consumers can construct an evoked set of alternative plans.

· Evaluation of alternatives: Consumers may judge alternatives by many criteria. In quantitative estimation, Insurance-Match provides filters to help them focus on the most likely results. In conceptual evaluation, such as categorization process and brand extensions, Insurance-Match can provide relative information

· Purchase: The transaction is between consumer and agent, so Insurance-Match doesn’t involve this stage. Insurance-Match makes profit from introducing customers to agents.

· Post purchase behavior: For consumers, Insurance-Match provides review function to let them rate the agents who server them. For agents, Insurance-Match provides customer relationship management (CRM) application to let them build up long-term relationship with their customers.

9. Market segmentation

The market for Insurance-Match can be segmented into two populations:

· Consumers: people who need to buy or renew insurance.

o Income is not so definitive in consumer category; different income groups can find out different suitable insurance here. Parents with children under 18 are potential customers. The most defined characteristic of the market is internet usage rate. An ideal consumer is an internet medium user, who knows how to search information and registers into a SNS website other than merely browses news on portals.

· Insurance agents: people who need to sell insurance.

o Here, occupation – insurance practitioner, is definitely a defined variable of agent category, as well as internet usage rage. Besides, geographic is another factor. A consumer that cannot find an agent within his/her city will close the webpage and leave Insurance-Match behind.

10. Marketing mix

· Product

o Information: Insurance-Match provides insurance search engine to collect information of insurance for all users. It’s free.

o Platform: Insurance-Match introduces potential customers to agents though platform. When a customer sends an inquiring message to interested agent, the agent receives a notice saying some customer has sent a message. If the agent wants to read the message and then contact the customer, he needs to pay some fee for it.

o CRM: a value-added application for insurance broker companies. They can use it to record, track and maintain customers that its agents met through Insurance-Match. It will significantly increase relationship selling.

· Price

o Information: free for all.

o Platform: free for consumer, fee for agent. Base price will be $0.09 per message, in addition 5 unlimited packages:

	single message	1 month package	3 month package	6 month package	12 month package
price	$0.09	$ 9.99	$ 29.99	$ 49.99	$ 99.99

o CRM: Only for insurance broker companies, which have 10 or more agents listed in Insurance-Match in one single state. FREE.

· Distribution

o Self-owned website.

o Apps for other channel, such as Facebook and smartphones.

· Promotion

o Advertising: with a limited budget, Insurance-Match can only advertise online.

§ Use Google ads through buying keyword “affordable insurance”.

§ Post on Craigslist in SF bay area > services offered > financial services.

o Public relations

§ Use Facebook and twitter to build official mini-site of Insurance-Match to communicate with internet users.

§ Compose and publish articles on famous websites, such as Yahoo, MSN

§ Make video tutorial and upload to YouTube.

o Promotional programs:

§ The 5 unlimited packages listed above is one of the promotions.

§ For new entrant agent, there are two free-reading quotas as a gift.

§ For agent logging on for three continuously days, one free-reading quota will be added to his quota from the third day.

o Sales force:

§ Skilled internet people

§ Telemarketing

11. Evaluation and control

· If one competitor appears,

a) and enters into the same region Insurance-Match operates, Insurance-Match has to defend by boosting market share. In this case, Insurance-Match needs capital rising to speed up the process.

b) but locates in different place, Insurance-Match expands its local market share, meanwhile, studies the competitor to plan countermeasure.

· If plenty of competitors arise simultaneously, Insurance-Match doesn’t have enough power to defeat against so many rivals. So the market objectives should be adjusted to focus on enhancing the current market, and do the right thing to survival from the battle royal.

Below is my final essay of FIN 138 Principles of Investments in CCSF, including professor Needham’s feedback.

Warning: do NOT copy!

High risky Investment Plan

Goals & Risk Tolerance

In current several years, I am merely a none-income international student in the U.S. I have save funds for my education, but apart from little interest from saving account, my revenue is almost zero. That how much money I can use in investing is $10,000 in which I can bear 5K lost.

The estimated fund needed for my long term goals is around 3.6Million in current value. Given the inflation 3% through next decade, it will be 4.9M. It seems like a huge number. That’s the reason I need to learn more about the investing in order to help me achieve the goals.

My risk tolerance score is 30, which means I have an above-average tolerance for risk. The goals previously listed have been adjusted – the original amount was more than 5M.

I think investing is not the primary method for me to make tons of money. However, it is definitely an efficient way to help me reduce the heavy burdens. Let me set my investment goal to be 1M. How can I turn the initial 10K into 1M in ten years? It’s an immense challenge, which means I need a 55% return rate per year during these ten years. It still sounds impossible. No problem. Let’s see how much I can get at the end.

Investment Strategy

In most cases, return goes with risk. In other words, the more proceeds I want, the more chance I can’t get it and, more worst, I may lose what I have invested. Can I avoid the risk? No, nobody can, probably. Risk is not a substance you can see or touch, it just a feeling or conception. But luckily, we have some indicators to reflect how risky a risk is – one of those is beta.

Beta is an important identification for measuring how an investment vehicle fluctuates again the whole market. Mentioning the market, we know that it does not necessarily move upward forever. There is bullish and bearish market by turns. When the bear comes, system risk befalls.

Since economy now in the U.S is recovering and the capital market is correspondingly rebounding, perhaps it is an appropriate time to enter the market. Following scientific method and wisdom rather than following bulk of others, we have the chance keep up with the resurgent market.

In the case I want a higher return; I have to bear higher risk. The high beta securities are the targets of mine.

Capital Asset Pricing Model (hereinafter CAPM) is one scientific method to evaluate the return of one security regarding its beta and market’s beta.

On the other hand, CAPM is widely used for fundamental analysis, but it just good for the long-run or static analysis. How can it deal with the dynamic capital market? In addition, nowadays is an information society, many news will, more or less, influent the price of securities. To complement CAPM, some economic expert created Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), which I judge good for most circumstances. To let EMH serve us well, we should set up a watch list for securities in our portfolio. But it’s NOT wise to action hastily when coming upon BIG news about some security you have never known.

Knowing strategic choices is helpful to make investment strategy. Some strategies are listed below, which are my personal understand.

o Liquidity

· Liquidity is one factor in choosing investing vehicle. In my humble opinion, the more action you take on security, the more liquidity you’d better ask for. In other words, if you want to hold security for long, such as 30-years T-bond, you don’t have to worry about its liquidity. But if emergency occurs, it may be needed cashing immediately, that could be little problem. I hope you have set emergency fund or liquidate other high liquidity securities.

o Capital preservation

· We invest is in order to make money, not to lose. But return always comes with risk. While there is risk, there is chance to lose money. In contrast, Low beta securities have low risk losing money. I will put some low beta stock into my portfolio to protect me from losing more than 50% of my initial investment.

o Growth

· Unlike capital preservation, Growth means getting more risk to exchange more change to appreciate. Growth stocks are main targets I look for.

o Income

· Current income is not so important for me; especially my initial fund is so little. I’d rather choose stocks or bonds with automatic reinvestment plan.

Asset Allocation

Diversification is one of the most important determinants in setting up a portfolio. It can lower the risk and rise the return for whole portfolio. In order to achieve diversification, we should include 15 different types of investment through different kinds of asset class, such as stocks, bonds, mutual funds, foreign securities, short-term securities etc.

Knowing some asset classes is also helpful to decide asset allocation.

o Stocks. Stocks will increase in value over time and generate significant capital gains. Besides, many stocks do pay dividends. Although they carry tremendous risks, they are my first consideration.

o Bonds. Bonds also provide current income and capital gains. On the bright side, bonds give guarantee revenue to investors. On the dubious side, their risks, especially interest risk, are no less than stocks. I would pick couple bonds for diversification.

o Mutual funds. A mutual fund itself is a well-diversified portfolio. Holding it is an easy way to diversify the personal portfolio. I should choose several mutual funds that focus in different fields, such as aggressive-growth funds, money market mutual funds, equity mutual funds, index funds etc.

o Hedge funds. Like mutual funds, hedge funds are pooled in many securities. For two main point hedge funds differ from mutual fund: one is the former invests in very high risky securities. Second is the hedge funds require big amount to participate, say, tens of thousands dollars. I don’t have much money to join, but I can take hedge funds as reference source to search risky securities.

o Foreign securities. Foreign capital market provides a hazardous but profitable opportunity to us. But as an apprentice, I had better stay away from foreign markets; they are usually more risky than the U.S regular market.

o Derivative securities. Including options and futures, derivative securities are speculative investment. In Otis, I had bought some futures for test and for fun. The result was I lost almost 10K, near 50% in the future investing, in two weeks. What a shock! Some other classmates experienced similar frustration as well. Fortunately, the loss was just an experiment in the Otis, not the real money. I think I’d better keep away from those things I don’t know about.

o Other popular investments. In this category, real estate and tangibles are main investments. As they need large amount money to participate, I wouldn’t consider about them.

No matter what kinds of asset class investment, the issuers are operating in different industry sectors. That means when we pick up the securities, we should consider the whole industry where the issuer is in. To maximize the balance between diversification and earning, it’s customarily raising the percentage of promising industry, such as green energy, and lowering the unpromising industry, such as financial institution, in the portfolio.

In sum, I will form a risky investment strategy like below:

Category	Allocation	Value
Stocks	70%	$ 7,000
Mutual funds	20%	$ 2,000
Bonds	10%	$ 1,000

To achieve 55% return rate, my portfolio is designated to contain very high risky investments. The stock market return in 2010 is 15.1%, according to a report from marketwatch.com. The 10-year Treasury bond yields 3.14%. Following CAPM formula:

R _required= R _risk-free + Beta * (R _market – R _risk-free)， I can get the beta:

= = 4.33

Finding and evaluating the securities with beta bigger than 4 is the direction of forming my portfolio.

Choose Investments & Form Portfolio

As I have decided to form a risky portfolio, the beta is the first factor. Although I have planned to use

Estimated price = Estimated EPS x Estimated P/E ratio

to forecast the price of the selected stock, but, during the analysis progress, I found it was inapplicable to use this EPS method.

Because (1) earning (or profit) and (2) book value of the risky stock are sorely volatile, whereas, we need these two crucial factors to calculate ROE and EPS.

EPS = ROE x Book value per share or EPS

Hence, the EPS and ROE are not so meaningful to forecast the price for risky stock. However, the future price is a key factor to calculate the Holding Period Return (HPR) in every annual period. There is no other way to make it, so I adopt the estimated price provided by some brokers. Half a loaf is better than no bread, right?

I pick seven stocks, four mutual funds and one bond to match up the percentage in the asset allocation: each stock gets one thousand dollar, each fund five hundred and the bond one thousand.

Stocks

Stock No.1: Newcastle Investment Corp.

Company	Newcastle Investment Corp. (Public, NYSE:NCT)
Sector	Financial
Industry	REIT – Diversified
Date	31-Dec-10	31-Dec-09	31-Dec-08
Net income	621,662,000	(209,904,000)	(2,985,352,000)
outstanding shares	77,000,000	77,000,000	77,000,000
Earnings Per Share	8.07	(2.73)	(38.77)
Book value	(247,585)	(1,640,652)	(2,393,532)
Book value per share	(0.00)	(0.02)	(0.03)
52 week range	2.24 – 8.85
Current Price	5.70	1.23	9.93
Current Price / Earnings ratio	0.71	(0.45)	(0.26)
Current Price / Book ratio	(1,772.72)	(57.73)	(319.45)
Dividend	0	-	-
Dividend yield	0.00%	-	-
Beta	3.55	-	-

According to the table above, the financial position is poor in the recent years. But the deficit of book value is getting smaller and smaller. The whole economy of the U.S is recovering, so it is possible for a financial institution to turn lost into gain in 2011.

Its P/E ratio is merely 0.71. That means the price is significantly undervalued.

So I would like to use the estimated price given by some brokers as below:

1y Target Estimate:	9.5
Current yield	0
Capital yield	3.80
Holding Period Return	66.67%

The HPR for the first year is 66.67%, beyond my 55% goal.

Stock No.2: Ruby Tuesday, Inc.

Company	Ruby Tuesday, Inc. (Public, NYSE:RT)
Sector	Services
Industry	Restaurants
Date	31-Dec-10	31-Dec-09	31-Dec-08
Net income	5,344,000	(17,918,000)	26,377,000
outstanding shares	64,950,000	64,950,000	64,950,000
Earnings Per Share	0.08	(0.28)	0.41
Book value	538,100,000	416,366,000	407,412,000
Book value per share	8.28	6.41	6.27
52 week range	7.63 – 15.57
Current Price	10.50	7.95	8.10
Current Price / Earnings ratio	127.62	(28.82)	19.95
Current Price / Book ratio	1.27	1.24	1.29
Dividend	0	-	-
Dividend yield	0.00%	-	-
Beta	3.87	-	-

According to the table above, the restaurant company has an over-heated P/E ratio. Perhaps it should make bigger effort to increase income. Basing on its solid book value, it is likely to boom.

I agree 16.77 is a fair estimation:

1y Target Estimate:	16.77
Current yield	0
Capital yield	6.27
Holding Period Return	59.71%

The HPR is 59.71%, surpassing my 55% goal.

Stock No.3: Deer Consumer Products, Inc.

Company	Deer Consumer Products, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:DEER)
Sector	Consumer Goods
Industry	Home Furnishings & Fixtures
Date	31-Dec-10	31-Dec-09	31-Dec-08
Net income	30,349,000	12,369,000	3,357,000
outstanding shares	33,590,000	33,590,000	33,590,000
Earnings Per Share	0.90	0.37	0.10
Book value	101,614,000	109,037,000	14,873,000
Book value per share	3.03	3.25	0.44
52 week range	6.12 – 13.00
Current Price	8.82	8.63	6.20
Current Price / Earnings ratio	9.76	23.44	62.04
Current Price / Book ratio	2.92	2.66	14.00
Dividend	0.03	-	-
Dividend yield	0.34%	-	-
Beta	(7.78)	-	-

According to the table above, this company is financial sound. The odd thing is it has a negative beta, -7.78. How can it be? When the whole economy and market thrive, the company goes down. When the environment deteriorates, the company grows up? It’s hard to understand. Maybe the beta is just a static number.

The P/E ratio, 9.76, is far low than average of consumer goods sector, 30.30. It means the company has great chance to grow.

Let’s predict the price:

1y Target Estimate:	13.50
Current yield	0.03
Capital yield	4.68
Holding Period Return	53.40%

The HPR is 53.04%, very close to my 55% goal.

Stock No.4: Air Transport Services Group Inc.

Company	Air Transport Services Group Inc. (NASDAQ:ATSG)
Sector	Services
Industry	Air Delivery & Freight Services
Date	31-Dec-10	31-Dec-09	31-Dec-08
Net income	39,834,000	34,449,000	(55,990,000)
outstanding shares	64,310,000	64,310,000	64,310,000
Earnings Per Share	0.62	0.54	(0.87)
Book value	203,041,000	146,092,000	(20,385,000)
Book value per share	3.16	2.27	(0.32)
52 week range	4.31 – 8.65
Current Price	7.69	0.68	2.54
Current Price / Earnings ratio	12.42	1.27	(2.92)
Current Price / Book ratio	2.44	0.30	(8.01)
Dividend	0	-	-
Dividend yield	0.00%	-	-
Beta	3.92	-	-

According to the table above, the company has turned the financial operation from negative to positive. Its P/E ratio is 12.42, not high for services business, meaning potential growth.

Assuming this stock will constantly rise, the estimated price below is moderate:

1y Target Estimated:	11
Current yield	0
Capital yield	3.31
Holding Period Return	43.04%

The HPR is 43.04%, lower than my 55% goal.

Stock No.5: Avis Budget Group Inc.

Company	Avis Budget Group Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CAR)
Sector	Services
Industry	Rental & Leasing Services
Date	31-Dec-10	31-Dec-09	31-Dec-08
Net income	54,000,000	(47,000,000)	(1,124,000,000)
outstanding shares	104,900,000	104,900,000	104,900,000
Earnings Per Share	0.51	(0.45)	(10.71)
Book value	(147,000)	(332,000)	(449,000)
Book value per share	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)
52 week range	8.57 – 19.49
Current Price	18.47	0.00	0.00
Current Price / Earnings ratio	35.88	0.00	0.00
Current Price / Book ratio	(13,180.29)	0.00	0.00
Dividend	0	-	-
Dividend yield	0.00%	-	-
Beta	3.55	-	-

According to the table above, the company is lost-making, whereas its income gets better and better.

It has a 3.55 beta. In the optimal case, it may beat the market.

So, let’s set the future price a little higher:

1y Target Estimate:	25.20
Current yield	0
Capital yield	6.73
Holding Period Return	36.44%

The HPR is 36.44%, far away from my 55% goal.

Stock No.6: Dana Holding Corporation

Company	Dana Holding Corporation (Public, NYSE:DAN)
Sector	Consumer Goods
Industry	Auto Parts
Date	31-Dec-10	31-Dec-09	31-Dec-08
Net income	(22,000,000)	(463,000,000)	(720,000,000)
outstanding shares	146,260,000	146,260,000	146,260,000
Earnings Per Share	(0.15)	(3.17)	(4.92)
Book value	1,229,000,000	1,130,000,000	1,337,000,000
Book value per share	8.40	7.73	9.14
52 week range	8.95 – 19.35
Current Price	18.11	11.43	2.24
Current Price / Earnings ratio	(120.40)	(3.61)	(0.46)
Current Price / Book ratio	2.16	1.48	0.25
Dividend	0	-	-
Dividend yield	0.00%	-	-
Beta	4.65	-	-

According to the table above, the company lost money year by year. I am rather curious to know how it boosted up its stock price.

Until we know more about the company, the numbers are meaningless.

Just assume it can still use magic trick to raise the price:

1y Target Estimate:	23.00
Current yield	0
Capital yield	4.89
Holding Period Return	27.00%

The HPR is 27.00%, half to my 55% goal.

Stock No.7: Human Genome Sciences

Company	Human Genome Sciences (Public, NASDAQ:HGSI)
Sector	Healthcare
Industry	Biotechnology
Date	31-Dec-10	31-Dec-09	31-Dec-08
Net income	(233,231,000)	5,659,000	(244,915,000)
outstanding shares	189,280,000	189,280,000	189,280,000
Earnings Per Share	(1.23)	0.03	(1.29)
Book value	585,763,000	755,415,000	(241,375,000)
Book value per share	3.09	3.99	(1.28)
52 week range	20.56 – 30.48
Current Price	27.64	22.46	2.11
Current Price / Earnings ratio	(22.43)	751.23	(1.63)
Current Price / Book ratio	8.93	5.63	(1.65)
Dividend	0	-	-
Dividend yield	0.00%	-	-
Beta	4.21	-	-

According to the table above, like the company previously, this company can also increase its stock price while losing money. What a wonder world! Financial affairs cannot be explained by common sense.

Some brokers fearlessly point out a price:

1y Target Estimate:	34.59
Current yield	0
Capital yield	6.95
Holding Period Return	25.14%

The HPR is 25.14%, getting farther and farther from my 55% goal.

Summary of Stocks section:

To diversify the investment in stocks, I have tried to pick up one stock in each sector, but failed. In Basic Materials, Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Services and Utilities, even if in Technology, it’s difficult to find a stock with high beta and favorable history record.

Mutual funds

Mutual Funds	Price	Annualized 3 Yr Return	Overall Morningstar Rating	Beta	NAV
Oceanstone Fund  (MUTF:OSFDX)	37.03	53.23%	★★★★★	1.64	37.03
Robeco Long/Short Eq Inv  (MUTF:BPLEX)	19.77	16.41%	★★★★★	0.98	19.77
Direxion Mthly 10 Year Note Bull 2X  (MUTF:DXKLX)	26.52	14.89%	★★★★☆	3.98	26.52
Franklin Gold and Precious Metals Adv  (MUTF:FGADX)	48.60	16.80%	★★★☆☆	-4.98	48.60

Mutual funds usually provide steady but relatively low return. These four are chosen from a vast pool of mutual funds.

The reason I choose annualized 3-year return as an indicator is that 1-year is too short to judge the performance, whereas many data are invalid for 5-year.

The first one, Oceanstone Fund, has an incredible return. Too good to believe. Is that any possible a mutual fund can create over 50% return?

Bonds

MAXCOM TELECOMUNICACIONES SA (Public, MXK:MAXCOMCPO)
Price:	77.69
Coupon (%):	11
Maturity Date:	15-Dec-14
Yield to Maturity (%):	19.9
Current Yield (%):	14.16
Fitch Ratings:	B
Coupon Payment Frequency:	Semi-Annual
Type:	Corporate
Callable:	Yes

This bond gives high YTM rate. Although it’s a B-rating bond with callable provision, it seems not bad. I choose this one.

Conclusion

My portfolio	Price	Share	Beta	Proportion	Portfolio Beta
NYSE:NCT	5.70	175	3.55	10.0%	0.36
NYSE:RT	10.50	95	3.87	10.0%	0.39
NASDAQ:DEER	8.82	113	-7.78	10.0%	-0.78
NASDAQ:ATSG	7.69	130	3.92	10.0%	0.39
NASDAQ:CAR	18.47	54	3.55	10.0%	0.36
NYSE:DAN	18.11	55	4.65	10.0%	0.47
NASDAQ:HGSI	27.64	36	4.21	10.0%	0.42
Stocks sub total				70.0%	1.60
MUTF:OSFDX	37.03	14	1.64	5.0%	0.08
MUTF:BPLEX	19.77	25	0.98	5.0%	0.05
MUTF:DXKLX	26.52	19	3.98	5.0%	0.20
MUTF:FGADX	48.60	10	-4.98	5.0%	-0.25
Mutual Funds sub total				20.0%	0.08
MXK:MAXCOMCPO	77.69	13	1	10.0%	0.10
Bond sub total				10.0%	0.10
Total				100.0%	1.78

For a skyscraping goal, my portfolio is full of high risky investments. The total portfolio beta is 1.78, which is not as high as I previously thought. I created a portfolio in Yahoo! Finance, according to the table above. It seems good.

To be honest, I think this kind of investing can be crazy. Perhaps all the money will say goodbye to me in few months. But there is tiny chance I can double times of the initial funds in a decade. We will see. J

(Feedback by Michael)

Michael Needham Friday, 20 May 2011, 11:33 AM Grade: A+ Hello Chao, Well this is really a terrific job! Greta analysis, great understanding of the concepts of investment. I was expecting you to do a good job, but this is really superior! Thanks for taking the class, it was a pleasure to be with you again this semester. Feel fre to call on me for a reference if I can ever be of assistance. Michael Goals & Risk Tolerance   Discussion of your current financial situation + Goal estimates and future values + Personal risk assessment and adjustment for goals +     Investment Strategy   Understanding of beta / market risk and linkage to goals + Understanding of Capital Asset Pricing Model + Understanding of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis + Understanding of various strategic choices + Comparison of textbook/class approach and your strategy (if different) +     Asset Allocation   Discussion of diversification and application across asset class and geographic boundaries + Knowledge of different asset classes + Explain rationale for asset allocation percentages and industry choices +         Choose Investments & Form Portfolio   Intelligent use of textbook investment approaches, e.g. “fixed weightings,” P/E approach, application of criteria for evaluating equities + Knowledge of vehicles, such as ETF’s + Discussion of your portfolio recommendation and how it relates to your analysis + Use of different investments + Financial analysis +     Overall   Structure of discussion: current situation, goals, strategy, etc. + Appropriate use of data / charts / graphs + Data is discussed, not just listed + Ability to write clearly and well + Does this paper use things I have covered since the beginning of the class? + Don’t jump to conclusions – why do you believe what you do? +

]]> http://blog.gengchao.net/2011/05/high-risky-investment-plan-feedback/feed/ 0 http://blog.gengchao.net/2011/01/textbooks-return-to-papa/ http://blog.gengchao.net/2011/01/textbooks-return-to-papa/#comments Fri, 21 Jan 2011 02:25:38 +0000 Max http://blog.gengchao.net/2011/01/textbooks-return-to-papa/  

My books come back! Maybe God bless me indeed.

When I worried about my books, and didn’t receive response email, I got two missed call in my cell phone. Thinking that maybe the call from local UPS, I called back. To my surprise, it was someone who received my books and she wanted to give them back to me.

Her name is Bali. She said she got the package at the front door yesterday, and noticed it was delivered mistakenly. Fortunately, there was a label with my name and phone number on the package, so she called me.

What the package was sent to a wrong address? The answer was that her address was "68 Park St" while mine was "66 Patton St", and the addresses were very closed.  Maybe the lightheaded UPS deliveryman read the label carelessly and made an improper conveyance.

I went to her home immediately to get books back. Bali seems like an India women. She spoke not as fast as instructors I met. To express my gratitude, I gave a poker bought at the LEGO Land Park in San Diego. Through a short conversation, I knew Bali had two kids. Hope them would like the pretty poker.

May God bless kind people, like Bali.

Well, although I still not get the response from the trader, I should write another email to tell them my package had came to papa finally, even in a strange way. Below is the email.

============Second letter=====================

Hi again,

First of all, thanks for reading my letters.

Secondly, I got my textbooks back. The reason was that UPS delivered the package to the wrong addr "68 Park St", that might be similar to my addr "66 Patton St". UPS just left it at door. Fortunately, the package had a label with my phone number. The receiver made a call to me. So, the books came to papa.

Finally, the accident has gone, and it was not your fault. Please let the UPS know READ AND DELIVER THE ADDRESS CAREFULLY. It’s not holiday season so it should not be any excuse to make a mistake like that. What is worse, it will finally affect the customers of yours, not just itselves.

==================END=====================

That’s the experience about purchase online.

All Books are ready. Go to study now. Cheer up! Five A’s again!

The spring semester began on Tuesday, two days ago. I had been waiting for my two textbooks with over 150 bucks.

Today, the books should be delivered to me , but all I got was air. I couldn’t wait anymore, so I checked the track number through the UPS, and it was indicating the package had been delivered at the mid noon. I was so surprised that how dare the damn UPS saying so.

That was 150 bucks! What I thought was to contact UPS immediately. The phone should be the most directly way to get it. So I dialed the 800 number:1-800-PICK-UPS (742-5877). (This was the first time I dialed an alphabetic phone number. Before that, I had not known how to dial the letter on a telephone. At least, I learnt a little from this event.)

Getting through the UPS, there was a procedure to enounce the track number, which was a torment for me. I could not pronounce “X”and “0”so that the tele-program could identify them. That was so frustrating that I doubted myself that whether I was a fool in speaking English. Again and again, I spoke the serial number for ten more times to get into the next step. BUT, there was no any clue to double check the package info. I wanted to throw out the telephone!

Ok, OK, throwing the phone would not solve the problem and make the situation worse. I held myself to take some deep breath. When I calmed down, I tried to write email to UPS. BUT, the Fxxx UPS announce that:

To process your lost package request, UPS must work directly with the Shipper. Please have the Shipper contact UPS to resolve the issue. If this is not possible, or if you have another question, please continue.

What a fxxx UPS!

Well, “Calm down calm down. The world is so beautiful yet I am too testy. That is no good no good.” I told myself.

What I could do next was contact the seller. Since it had sent email to me notifying the book had been shipped, I replied the email to report the accident. text below was the content I put in the email.

============email begin=====================

Hi there,

I bought two books from textboos.com, and the quotation below is the relative info.

The question is: UPS marked the package was delivered, but I didn’t get it. There is no someone named "AA" living with me, and my uncle, who lives with me, said no package today. I don’t understand how the "AA" signed and where the package goes.

I am already taking my classes, without my textbooks. Please contact the UPS for me, that’s the UPS told me:"To process your lost package request, UPS must work directly with the Shipper. Please have the Shipper contact UPS to resolve the issue."

Thank you so much!

===========email end=====================

I hope it may work and I can get my books back. If they are missing, I have to buy the books in CCSF book store, where the books are sold in original price that is 250 more bucks.

God bless me.

I have checked the grades many times in the CCCSF website since winter break, but the result just came out this morning.

Very fortunately, I got five A’s in my first academic term. So, Artica can come to SF according to me keeping my promise.

Take a screenshot with the excellent job. ^_^

Five finals, all done!

Hope at least four A’s. Wish I can get five all A’s.

Too tired to say something. Let me have a long sleeping. zzZZ…

Time passed so fast. It is almost the end of this semester. And it is the time to take the final exams.

I got A’s for the first two exams, which made me very happy. One was General Business, the other was Excel 2007.

I studied all night for the Business, and finally I made it! In my scan chart, 93% was printed which meant I made progress than the earlier ones. According to the past exam scores and other records, Susan calculated my final grade to be “A”. She gave me a hug for congratulating. I did appreciate her for teaching with passion and communicating with me, a so-so English-speaking foreigner, with patience. I will miss her. Why not take a photo with her next time?

In the Excel 2007 exam, I was pretty sure I could make 100% again, just like the other two exams before.